Text / Sina financial opinion leader (WeChat public number kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping
The fundamental reason for the recent stock bond remittance to the three countries is that the inflation expectations we have been accentuating have warmed up. Only inflation can logically and self-consistently explain the current series of phenomena and deduct future trends.
The root cause of the three countries’ debts is the rise in inflation expectations.
The recent bond retreat in the three countries killed, the GEM fell below 2000 points, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.16%, the 10-year government bond futures fell more than 1%, the largest single-day decline in history, the offshore dollar against the yuan really went 6.94. Go, go back to liberation overnight. The market is in turmoil, it seems that the signal is very chaotic, but we think the logic is very clear: inflation! The decisive force for future macroeconomics and large-scale assets is the rise in inflation expectations.
1. Let's take a look at the various competitive explanations that have existed: There is a view that the A-share slump is caused by insurance supervision. So why is the small ticket falling more than the big ticket?
Some people believe that the A-share slump is related to the recent tight funding and rising interest rates. Then the trend has been formed after the National Day. Why is the stock market rising?
Some people believe that the decline in the bond market is caused by the Chinese central bank's short-term and long-term leverage. Is the global bond market plummeting also the Chinese central bank?
Etc. These views can only explain part of the phenomenon, but can not systematically explain the feedback model of the entire financial market in a logical and self-consistent manner. We need to look at the current macroeconomic and major asset trends in a larger perspective.
2. The fundamental reason for the recent stock bond remittance in the three countries is that the inflation expectations we have been accentuating have warmed up. Only inflation can systematically explain the current series of phenomena in a logical and self-consistent manner and deduct the future trend.
After coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals, crude oil prices soared, and OPEC and non-OPEC member countries reached a stimulus agreement. Since the beginning of November, oil has risen from $43/barrel to $56/barrel. Crude oil is the blood of industry. The mother of inflation. In November, the CPI rose to 2.3%, and the PPI rose to 3.3%. It is expected that the CPI in the first quarter of 2017 may exceed 2.5%, and the PPI may rush to 5%. The key to CPI is energy and food. The surge in commodity prices this year is nothing more than the filling of all valuations in the long-term currency over-the-counter background, from stock market bond markets to housing markets to commodities, from black to crude oil, and possibly to agricultural products in the future. Unlike stock market bond market price increases, rising real estate and commodity prices will directly drive inflation.
As inflation continues to rise, global currency tightening expectations continue to heat up. In December, the Fed raised interest rates by more than 90%. The market raised the number of Fed rate hikes in 2017 to more than two times. The country began to discuss the possibility of China raising interest rates. Affected by inflation and the tightening of monetary tightening expectations, global liquidity turning points have emerged, and bond markets in various countries have plummeted.
Inflation expectations led to a rebound in PPI and improved corporate performance. The industry that benefited from the price increase was relatively good. The US stock index was significantly stronger than the Nasdaq. The domestic Shanghai Composite Index was significantly stronger than the GEM, and the big ticket was obviously stronger than the small ticket. Why are growth stocks performing poorly in an inflationary environment? Because value stocks mainly rely on performance, growth stocks mainly rely on stories, storytelling is to burn money, inflation expectations lead to monetary policy tightening and rising capital costs, which is a major blow to growth stocks. Inflation is good for some blue-chip stocks. For example, petrochemicals benefit from price increases, and banks benefit from the mitigation of non-performing rates.
The rise in commodity prices and the “infrastructure + tax cut + anti-immigrant†policy combination of “Trump Economics†boosted US inflation expectations. Since November 9, the US dollar index has strengthened from 96.8 to 102, major currencies such as the euro and the renminbi. Relative to the dollar has depreciated.
Therefore, only inflation expectations will heat up to explain why the stocks are remitted to the three countries, and why the big votes are better than the small ones. Fundamental analysis is the starting point for all problems. As for the supervision of insurance funds and the de-leveraging of the central bank, it is only a logical logic, and the behavior of the central bank is endogenous to the fundamentals of the economy and inflation.
3. We have been emphasizing since October that “the main logic of the future macro economy and large-scale assets is inflation expectations, buying stocks to prevent inflationâ€, recommending industries that benefit from price increases, and are cautious about bond markets and growth stocks. The facts show that the industry that benefits from the price increase is obviously rising, and when it falls, it will resist, and the bond market will fall into a dog.
Corresponding to the “inflation†view we advocate, there is a “return to deflation†view of the market, which involves two major controversies in the current macroeconomic field:
First, there is a view that the rise in commodity prices will soon drive the recovery of capacity supply, which in turn will lead to price corrections. We believe that under the constraints of administrative de-capacity, environmental protection pressure, security risks, state-owned enterprise officials' salary limit, bank-limited loans, and traditional industry balance sheets, capacity supply recovery is much lower than expected, which has a large number of micro-investigations. support.
Second, there is a view that this round of economic cycle recovery and commodity price increases are largely related to the stimulation of real estate. With real estate regulation, the economy will return to deflation and recession. We believe that real estate sales will be transferred to investment for half a year, and this time the real estate investment is not deep, the real estate inventory in the first and second line and some third-tier cities will be fully depleted, and there will be demand for replenishment in the future, and the Sino-US fiscal resonance and replenishment will be To hedge the impact of real estate, we maintain the judgment of the mid-term economic L-shaped bottom.
Therefore, the main contradiction between macroeconomics and large-scale assets in the future is inflation, supply constraints, cost-driven, demand-driven, and the depreciation of exchange rate depreciation, which together promote the strengthening of future inflation expectations. The allocation of future large-scale assets should follow the logic of inflation. Expand.
4. Looking into the future, in the context of rising inflation expectations, stocks are better than bonds, big tickets are better than small votes, and falling is an opportunity to buy.
It is expected that inflation will continue to last at least until the first quarter of 2017, CPI may exceed 2.5%, and PPI may rush to 5%. At present, CPI will not challenge the 3% warning line and trigger the central bank to raise interest rates, but past experience shows that 2.5%-3% is the acceleration belt for self-enhancement of inflation expectations, paying close attention to the transmission of PPI to CPI, crude oil and agricultural products prices. Rise and so on.
For the bond market, due to the “economic L-type†soft landing, rising inflation expectations, and monetary policy de-leveraging to prevent risks, the three-year bond bull market may have ended, and the interest rate inflection point may have emerged. Will bring trading opportunities.
For the stock market, the main logic of this round of market comes from the fundamentals, that is, the inflation expectations of the supply clearing and demand stabilization are strengthening and the performance of the company is improving. We maintain the medium-term optimistic judgment on the stock market: “Economy L-type†soft landing Moderate inflation, corporate profits continue to improve; the recent housing market bond market has been regulated by policies, the stock market price-performance ratio has increased, large-scale asset rotation has shifted from the bond market to the stock market and commodities, industrial capital, pensions, bank subcontracts, etc. The funds can be expected; the economic L-type soft landing eliminates the risk of stall tail, and the 19th year opens a new five-year period, and the risk appetite increases. Due to the oversold caused by the strengthening of insurance supervision and market sentiment, the buying opportunities, the upstream industry benefiting from price increases, the middle and lower reaches industries capable of cost transmission, the profitability of enterprises to reduce bank non-performing rate, and non-bank benefits In Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, state-owned enterprise reform, all the way.
5, a little thought: the left and right sides of the trend judgment.
As an old driver who has been engaged in macroeconomic research for 15 years, he has done academic research, public policy research, and business research. His past predictions have been unsatisfactory, but he has profoundly realized that he should not try to seize every wave and seize the trend. The most important aspect of macro research is the pattern. No one can stop the power of the trend, "reform cattle" and "economic L-type" "double the house price."
The general trend of judgment is nothing more than choosing the left or right side of the trend. In the past two years, we have made several predictions on the left and bottom. For example, in April, we proposed the “Spring Offensive, 20%!â€, which became the earliest team in the market. Although it is full of controversy and twists and turns, the disputes are similar. In July-August 2014, "5000 points is not a dream", but afterwards, it is the market bottom, the best buy point, and the contribution to investors is also the biggest. It is a testimony to the old saying that “the bottom is based on faith and the top is on reason.†The heart is strong and invincible. In October, it was proposed that “the housing market will regulate the stock market and press the gourd to float upâ€. In November, “buy stocks to prevent inflation†is the forecast on the right side. The dispute is relatively small, but the contribution to investors is relatively Not that big.
What is a trend? The rise in inflation expectations is the main trend in the current market, and the trend is there.
(The author of this article: Chief Economist of Founder Securities. He served as deputy director of the Research Department of the Macro Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and Managing Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute.)
Clear Pvc Plastic Shower Liner,Peva Clear Shower Curtain,Pvc Plastic Shower Liner is strong and durable, with good sag and general feel.Peva Clear Shower Curtain is odorless, smooth and has a good feel.
Material:PEVA/PVC
Size (m):1.8×1.8,1.78×1.83 and so on
Brand name:shangyou
Color:Transparent
Weight:Customized
Place of origin:Jiangsu China
Feature:
1. Waterproof, oilproof, heat resistant, wear resistant, non toxic, durable.
2. Hang down naturally, will not wrinkle, no fading
3. Can replace the cotton, fibre or lace tablecloth which are difficult to clean and expensive.
4. Hundreds of attractive designs for your selection.
Packing:pvc bags or other requested
Applied range:Home,hotel and so on
Port of loading:Shanghai port ,Ningbo port
Payment terms:T/T ,L/C
Delivery time:45days
MOQ:3000pcs
Transparent peva Shower Liner,Transparent Pvc Showe Liner,Clear Peva Shower Liner,Clear Pvc Shower Liner
Jiangyin Shangyou Plastic Co.,Ltd. , https://www.jyshangyouplastic.com