According to data from China Customs and China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, along with the strong growth of China's textile and apparel foreign trade, China's largest knitwear manufacturer and exporter, known as "Foxconn in the apparel industry", Ningbo Shenzhou Knitting Co., Ltd. The company (hereinafter referred to as "Shenzhou International") achieved an export value of 317 million yuan in the first four months of this year, an increase of 2.04% compared with the same period of the previous year, ranking first among China's textile and garment export enterprises, followed by Guangzhou Lexiao International Freight. Agency Co., Ltd. achieved an export value of 267 million yuan in the first 4 months. The export value of Zhejiang Yidatong Enterprise Service Co., Ltd., which ranked third, reached 240 million US dollars, down 31.99% compared with the same period of last year.
Yao Qian, a financial analyst at Huatai, said that the core customers of Shenzhou International include Nike, UNIQLO, Adidas and Puma (four of which accounted for more than 90% of sales in 2016), and their strong growth momentum (2016-2019 sales growth) The rate is up to 16%) and the profitability of the industry (OPM is 25%, which is higher than 20% of the surplus and 17% of the company). It is worthy of attention. According to the analysis, the performance of Shenzhou International’s performance is mainly benefited. In several aspects: first, the company's leading position; secondly, the company's highly integrated business model from fabric to ready-to-wear; third, excellent innovation and high brand dependence. It is estimated that in 2016-2019, Shenzhou International's sales and earnings will increase at a compound growth rate of 16% and 20%, respectively.
In Yao Qian's view, the capacity increase of the Vietnam plant is still the main growth point of Shenzhou International. It is expected that Shenzhou International's sales volume in 2017 will increase by 14% from 310 million in 2016 to approximately 350 million pieces. According to the analysis, the business bottleneck of Shenzhou International is not the market demand, but the capacity expansion. With the new fabric and garment factory in Vietnam put into operation in 2015, it is expected that the increase in production capacity of the Vietnam plant will continue to be the main driving force for the growth of Shenzhou International's revenue. The number of workers in the garment factory in Vietnam is expected to increase from 8,000 in May to 10,000 at the end of 2017, and after the second garment factory is put into operation in 2018, the number of workers will reach 16,000. At present, the production efficiency of Vietnamese garment factories is only 55% and 70% of the factories in China and Cambodia respectively, which means that there is still room for improvement in efficiency. It is expected that with the skill of workers, the efficiency of Vietnam can reach 70% of China by the end of 2017. This year, Shenzhou International is upgrading its Ningbo plant, and it is expected that production efficiency will be improved, thus driving sales.
Yao Qian said that with the rapid improvement of Shenzhou International's performance, Shenzhou International's gross profit margin will increase by 1.2 percentage points from 32.5% in 2016 to 33.7% in 2019, mainly due to the expansion of the contribution of high-margin sports business to sales ( The gross profit margin is 34%, which is about 5 percentage points higher than the leisure business. In addition, the production efficiency of Ningbo production base will continue to improve, and the fluctuation of raw material prices will have little impact on the company, mainly because of efficient inventory management and Shenzhou International. It has the ability to transmit the cost increase downstream. Observed, Shenzhou International's operating profit margin will benefit from the increase in gross profit margin and the operating leverage brought about by the upgrade of the Vietnam factory experience curve.
Lei Yu, a researcher at Changjiang Securities, said that in the context of economic globalization, in order to seek economic benefits and maximize resource allocation efficiency, orders are redistributed globally, specifically to the textile and garment industry, and industrial transfer shows a clear southward and westward trend. . In its view, Chinese textile and garment enterprises are targeting Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, etc., and they have successfully attracted a large number of textile orders with cheap labor cost advantages and preferential tax policies, which has increased the proportion of global textile export share, but in the short term. It is difficult to shake the dominant position of Chinese textile exports.
Lei Yu pointed out that in the short and medium term, the impact of emerging countries such as Vietnam on China's textile and apparel exports is mainly concentrated in the field of ready-to-wear; in the case of the major importing country, the Chinese textile industry has a significant competitive advantage and firmly holds the top spot in market share. The market share of Indian textiles continues to rise, which has a certain impact on China. Vietnam and Indonesia are subject to the limitations of the industrial chain and the overall competitiveness is weak. On the other hand, the export of garments and clothing accessories still dominates. However, the overall trend has continued to decline since 2010, while the proportion of Vietnam with cheap labor and tax policy advantages has rapidly increased.
Lei Yu further analyzed that the current textile industry in the emerging countries is not well-developed, and the impact of industrial transfer on China's textile exports is limited in the short- and medium-term. Considering the impact of RMB depreciation since the exchange reform in 2015, China's export textiles for emerging countries' textiles The price advantage has been restored to a certain extent; with the stabilization and recovery of the external economic environment, the external demand for textiles has gradually recovered. It is expected that China's textile exports are expected to gradually stabilize. In the long run, with the improvement of the overseas investment layout of textile enterprises and the release of production benefits, the competition scope of textile enterprises based on the Chinese-funded background has further expanded.
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