On Monday (August 15th), the international oil price fluctuated sharply and it has risen by more than 1%. Due to the remarks made by the Russian energy minister during the day, the market further expects the oil-producing countries to take action to stabilize the oil market.
The Middle East Daily (Asharq al-Awsat) reported today that Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the country is negotiating with Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries to promote oil market stability, but he also said that the oil market will not be available until 2017. It may be completely stable.
However, Morgan Stanley pointed out in a report in the day that the recent rebound in oil prices was mainly driven by option traders and also masked the weakness of fundamentals.
Morgan Stanley's Adam LonGS on and other analysts said in a recent report that oil prices have risen sharply due to traders' short covering, but the market's basic fabrics are still weak in the coming months.
The report pointed out that the relatively large September WTI put option exercise price was 40, 45 US dollars per barrel, higher or closer to the market price, causing traders to hedge against the exposure.
It also said that once the August 17 date expires, the impact of the initiative will fade; the comments of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) also helped reverse the bearish sentiment.
Morgan Stanley said that OPEC crude oil production record (although seasonal), coupled with increased Libyan crude oil exports, Iraq's output growth trend may continue into 2017, increased bearish signs.
In addition, the decline in US gasoline inventories is deceptive, as higher net exports (decreased imports and increased sales in overseas markets) may “conceal the problemâ€.
Finally, it pointed out that if the global crude oil product market is still oversupply, then the ability to expand the scale of exports may be limited, and the decline in the operating rate of refineries is inevitable.
Proofreading: JOE
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